Meeting 3 (June 4)

III. (June 4) Deeper Concepts: Confidence Intervals and Tests: Higgs’ Discovery:

Reading:

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour III 

(Strongly) Recommended (as much as interests you) Excursion 3 Tour II:It’s the Methods Stupid: Howlers and Chestnuts of Tests


General Info Items:  

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

–Souvenirs  Meeting 3: N (Rule of Thumb for SEV), O(Interpreting Probable Flukes), [L (Beyond Incompatibilist Tunnels),M(Quicksand Takeaway]

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog


Mayo Memos for Meeting 3:

-5/30 I blogged on nearly every topic in SIST as I was writing it at errorstatistics.com. Using the search on errorstatistics.com for a topic, you’ll often discover the development of ideas and discussion from readers. Reader discussion often saved me from blunders!

-A review essay of SIST by particle physicist Bob Cousins is relevant for the topics of meeting #3: Cousins, R. (2020). “Connections between statistical practice in elementary particle physics and the severity concept as discussed in Mayo’s Statistical Inference as Severe Testing” (Draft February 22, 2020), arXiv:2002.09713v1 [stat.OT].


Slides & Video Links for Meeting 3:

Slides: (PDF)

Video: https://videos.files.wordpress.com/Xmn6q0iz/lecture_3_ph500_trimmed_fmt1.ogv

at-home seminar room w/ blackboard

(Thebes) conference room for seminar

amp & mike

on the desk outside conference room

Meeting 2 (May 28)

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II. (May 28): N-P and Fisherian Tests, Severe Testing: How to avoid fallacies of tests

Reading:

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I (focus on pages up to p. 152): 3.13.23.3

Recommended: Excursion 2 Tour II pp. 92-100 (Sections 2.4-2.7)

Optional: I will (try to) answer questions on demarcation of science, induction, falsification, Popper from Excursion 2 Tour II (Section 2.3)

(Use comments on this blog for queries we don’t get to in the seminar. The first comment you write is sent to moderation to be approved; after that it’s automatic.)

HandoutAreas Under the Standard Normal Curve

5 minute refresher on means, variance, standard deviations, and the Normal distribution, standard normal


General Info Items:  

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

SouvenirsMeeting 1: A-D;  Meeting 2 Souvenirs: (E) An Array of Questions, Problems, Models, (I) So What Is a Statistical Test, Really?, (J) UMP Tests, (K) Probativism

[Souvenirs from optional pages–they’re free: (F) Getting Free of Popperian Constraints on Language, (G) The Current State of Play in Psychology, (H) Solving Induction Is Showing Methods with Error Control]

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog

-Mementos from Excursion 2 Tour II: Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction 2.3-2.7


Mayo Memos for Meeting 2:

5/27 Today (27 May) is the statistician Allan Birnbaum’s birthday. I put up a blogpost (on my Error Statistics Philosophy blog) with a volume on foundations of statistics that Synthese published in his honor in 1977.

5/27 Sam Fletcher’s review essay of my book SIST is up at the journal Philosophy of Science


Slides & Video Links for Meeting 2:

Slides:
Meeting #2 main slides (PDF)

Supplemental slides (Likelihoodist vs. Significance Tester w/ Bernoulli Trials) (PDF)

Video: https://videos.files.wordpress.com/YgQcHOn3/zoom-_lecture_2_fmt1.ogv

Meeting 1 (May 21)

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I. (May 21)  Introduction: Controversies in Phil Stat  

Reading:

SIST*: Preface, Excursion 1
Preface
Excursion 1 Tour I

Excursion 1 Tour II

*Note: The above are from proofs, participants should have a copy of the book

Notes:
NOTES on Excursion 1
Postcard

Please ask any questions from the First Meeting in the comments of this blog.


General Info Items:  

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

Souvenirs  Meeting 1: Souvenir A Postcard to Send, Souvenir B Likelihood versus Error Statistical, Souvenir C A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide, Souvenir D Why We Are So New

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog


Slides & Video Links for Meeting 1:

Slides: (PDF)

Intro video from July 28, 2019
(Viewing in full screen mode helps with buffering issues.)

LSE Research Seminar PH500 21 May – 25 June, 2020

Mayo

 General Schedule  PDF

CLICK ON READINGS

Topic: Current Controversies in Phil Stat (LSE, Remote 15:00 – 17:00; Thursdays 21 May-18 June)

Main Text SIST: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars CUP, 2018)*:

Slides for each meeting will be on individual meeting posts on this blog.

I. (May 21)  Introduction: Controversies in Phil Stat: [Meeting 1 Blog Post; Slides: (PDF)]

SIST*: Preface, Excursion 1

Preface
Excursion 1 Tour I
Excursion 1 Tour II

*Note: The above are from proofs, participants have a copy of the book  Notes/Outline of Excursion 1 Postcard

II. (May 28) N-P and Fisherian Tests, Severe Testing: [Meeting 2 Blog Post; Meeting #2 Main slides (PDF) & Supplemental slides (Likelihoodist vs. Significance Tester w/ Bernoulli Trials) (PDF)]

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I (focus on pages up to p. 152): 3.13.23.3

Recommended: Excursion 2 Tour II pp. 92-100

Optional: I will (try to) answer questions on demarcation of science, induction, falsification, Popper from Excursion 2 Tour II

HandoutAreas Under the Standard Normal Curve

III. (June 4) Deeper Concepts: Confidence Intervals and Tests: Higgs’ Discovery: [Meeting 3 Blog Post; Slides (PDF)]

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour III
(Strongly) Recommended (as much as interests you) Excursion 3 Tour II: It’s the Methods Stupid: Howlers and Chestnuts of Tests

IV. (June 11) Rejection Fallacies: Do P-values exaggerate evidence? Jeffreys-Lindley paradox or Bayes/Fisher disagreement: [Meeting 4 Blog Post; Slides: (PDF)]

SIST: Excursion 4 Tour II

Recommended (if time): Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity”

 

V. (June 18) The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties: [Meeting 5 Blog Post; Draft Slides (PDF)]

SIST: Excursion 4 Tour III pp. 267-286; Farewell Keepsake pp. 436-444.  

-Amrhein, V., Greenland, S., & McShane, B., (2019). Comment: Retire Statistical Significance, Nature, 567: 305-308.

-Ioannidis J. (2019). “The Importance of Predefined Rules and Prespecified Statistical Analyses: Do Not Abandon Significance.” JAMA. 321(21): 2067–2068. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.4582

-Mayo, DG. (2019), P‐value thresholds: Forfeit at your peril. Eur J Clin Invest, 49: e13170. doi: 10.1111/eci.13170

Recommended (and fun) P-values on Trial: Selective Reporting of (Best Practice Guides Against) Selective Reporting

 

VI. (June 25) BONUS MEETING: Power, shpower, severity, positive predictive value (diagnostic model) & a Continuation of The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties: [Meeting 6 Blog Post; Mayo Slides (PDF) & Hand Slides (recorded power point)]

There will also be a guest speaker: Professor David Hand: “Trustworthiness of statistical analysis” (abstract).

SIST Excursion 5 Tour I (pp. 323-332; 338-344; 346-352),Tour II (pp. 353-6; 361-370), and

Recommended: What Ever Happened to Bayesian Foundations (Excursion 6 Tour I)

 

Information Items for SIST

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

Souvenirs

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog (I will link to items from excerpted proofs for interested blog followers as we proceed)

-SEV apps: Richard Morey. Newly updated Richard Morey SEV app.

-SIST Errata

DELAYED: JUNE 19-20 Workshop: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties

 

WORKSHOP

The Statistics Wars
and Their Casualties

19-20 June 2020 Delayed (a covid 19 casualty)

London School of Economics (CPNSS)

Alexander Bird (King’s College London), Mark Burgman (Imperial College London),
Daniele Fanelli (London School of Economics and Political Science),
Roman Frigg (London School of Economics and Political Science),
David Hand (Imperial College London), Christian Hennig (University of Bologna), Katrin Hohl (City University London), Daniël Lakens (Eindhoven University of Technology), Deborah Mayo (Virginia Tech), Richard Morey (Cardiff University),
Stephen Senn (Edinburgh, Scotland), Jon Williamson (University of Kent)*

While the field of statistics has a long history of passionate foundational controversy the last decade has, in many ways, been the most dramatic. Misuses of statistics, biasing selection effects, and high powered methods of Big-Data analysis, have helped to make it easy to find impressive-looking but spurious, results that fail to replicate. As the crisis of replication has spread beyond psychology and social sciences to biomedicine, genomics and other fields, people are getting serious about reforms.  Many are welcome (preregistration, transparency about data, eschewing mechanical uses of statistics); some are quite radical. The experts do not agree on how to restore scientific integrity, and these disagreements reflect philosophical battles–old and new– about the nature of inductive-statistical inference and the roles of probability in statistical inference and modeling. These philosophical issues simmer below the surface in competing views about the causes of problems and potential remedies. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence-policy reforms, they cannot scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, law, and so on). Critically reflecting on proposed reforms and changing standards requires insights from statisticians, philosophers of science, psychologists, journal editors, economists and practitioners from across the natural and social sciences. This workshop will bring together these interdisciplinary insights–from speakers as well as attendees.

Organizers: D. Mayo and R. Frigg

Logistician (chief logistics and contact person): Jean Miller 

*We expect one or more additional participants