Jon Williamson

June 24: “Have Covid-19 lockdowns led to an increase in domestic violence? Drawing inferences from police administrative data” (Katrin Hohl)

The tenth meeting of our Phil Stat Forum*:

The Statistics Wars
and Their Casualties

24 June 2021

TIME: 15:00-16:45 (London); 10:00-11:45 (New York, EST)

For information about the Phil Stat Wars forum and how to join, click on this link.

Katrin Hohl_copy

“Have Covid-19 lockdowns led to an increase in domestic violence? Drawing inferences from police administrative data” 

Katrin Hohl

Abstract: This applied paper reflects on the challenges in measuring the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns on the volume and profile of domestic violence. The presentation has two parts. First, I present preliminary findings from analyses of large-scale police data from seven English police forces that disentangle longer-term trends from the effect of the imposing and lifting of lockdown restrictions. Second, I reflect on the methodological challenges involved in accessing, analysing and drawing inferences from police administrative data. 

Katrin Hohl (Department of Sociology, City University London). Dr Katrin Hohl joined City University London in 2012 after completing her PhD at the LSE. Her research has two strands. The first revolves around various aspects of criminal justice responses to violence against women, in particular: the processes through which complaints of rape fail to result in a full police investigation, charge, prosecution and conviction; the challenges rape victims with mental health conditions pose to criminal justice, and the use of victim memory as evidence in rape complaints. The second strand focusses on public trust in the police, police legitimacy, compliance with the law and cooperation with the police and courts. Katrin has collaborated with the London Metropolitan Police on several research projects on the topics of public confidence in policing, police communication and neighbourhood policing. She is a member of the Centre for Law Justice and Journalism and the Centre for Crime and Justice Research.


Readings: 

Journal article
Piquero et al. (2021) Domestic violence during the Covid-19 pandemic – Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis, Journal of Criminal Justice, 74 (May-June). (PDF)
 
Blog post: 
Hohl, K. and Johnson K. (2020) A crisis exposed – how Covid-19 is impacting domestic abuse reported to the police. 
https://campaignforsocialscience.org.uk/news/a-crisis-exposed-how-covid-19-is-impacting-domestic-abuse-reported-to-the-police/

Slides & Video Links: 

Katrin Hohl presentation (Video Link)
Link to paste into browser: https://philstatwars.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/hohl-presentation-edited.mp4


Mayo’s Memos: Any info or events that arise that seem relevant to share with y’all before the meeting. Please check back closer to the meeting day.

*Meeting 18 of our the general Phil Stat series which began with the LSE Seminar PH500 on May 21

May 20: “Objective Bayesianism from a philosophical perspective” (Jon Williamson)

The ninth meeting of our Phil Stat Forum*:

The Statistics Wars
and Their Casualties

20 May 2021

TIME: 15:00-16:45 (London); 10:00-11:45 (New York, EST)

For information about the Phil Stat Wars forum and how to join, click on this link.

“Objective Bayesianism from a philosophical perspective” 

Jon Williamson

Abstract: This talk addresses the ‘statistics war’ between frequentists and Bayesians, and argues for a reconciliation of sorts. We start with an overview of Bayesianism and a divergence that has taken place between Bayesianism as adopted by philosophers and Bayesianism as adopted by statisticians. This divergence centres around the use of direct inference principles, which are now widely advocated by philosophers. I consider two direct inference principles, Reichenbach’s Principle of the Narrowest Reference Class and Lewis’ Principal Principle, and I argue that neither can be adequately accommodated within a standard Bayesian framework. A non-standard version of objective Bayesianism, however, can accommodate such principles. I introduce this version of objective Bayesianism and explain how it integrates both frequentist and Bayesian inference. Finally, I illustrate the application of the approach to medicine and suggest that this sort of approach offers a very natural solution to the statistical matching problem, which is becoming increasingly important.

Jon Williamson (Centre for Reasoning, University of Kent) works in the area of philosophy of science and medicine. He works on the philosophy of causality, the foundations of probability, formal epistemology, inductive logic, and the use of causality, probability and inference methods in science and medicine. Williamson’s books Bayesian Nets and Causality and In Defence of Objective Bayesianism develop the view that causality and probability are features of the way we reason about the world, not a part of the world itself. His books Probabilistic Logics and Probabilistic Networks and Lectures on Inductive Logic apply recent developments in Bayesianism to motivate a new approach to inductive logic. His latest book, Evaluating Evidence of Mechanisms in Medicine, seeks to broaden the range of evidence considered by evidence-based medicine. Jon Williamson’s webpage.


Readings: 

(1)  Christian Wallmann and Jon Williamson: The Principal Principle and subjective Bayesianism, European Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10(1):3, 2020. doi:10.1007/s13194-019-0266-4 (Link to PDF)

(2) Jon Williamson: Why Frequentists and Bayesians Need Each Other, Erkenntnis 78:293-318, 2013.  (Link to PDF)


Slides & Video Links: 

J. Williamson’s “Objective Bayesianism from a Philosophical Perspective” Slides.
His full talk is in this Presentation Video.

D. Mayo Casualties Slide
J. Williamson response to Casualties video


Mayo’s Memos: Any info or events that arise that seem relevant to share with y’all before the meeting. Please check back closer to the meeting day.

*Meeting 17 of our the general Phil Stat series which began with the LSE Seminar PH500 on May 21