Mayo

General Schedule  PDF

Topic: Current Controversies in Phil Stat (LSE, Remote 15:00 – 17:00; Thursdays 21 May-18 June)

Main Text SIST: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars CUP, 2018)*:

Slides for each meeting will be on individual meeting posts on this blog.

I. (May 21)  Introduction: Controversies in Phil Stat:  

SIST*: Preface, Excursion 1

Preface
Excursion 1 Tour I
Excursion 1 Tour II

*Note: The above are from proofs, participants have a copy of the book  Notes/Outline of Excursion 1 Postcard

II. (May 28) N-P and Fisherian Tests, Severe Testing:

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I (focus on pages up to p. 152): 3.13.23.3

Recommended: Excursion 2 Tour II pp. 92-100

Optional: I will (try to) answer questions on demarcation of science, induction, falsification, Popper from Excursion 2 Tour II

HandoutAreas Under the Standard Normal Curve

III. (June 4) Deeper Concepts: Confidence Intervals and Tests: Higgs’ Discovery:

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour III Optional: I will answer questions on Excursion 3 Tour II: Howlers and Chestnuts of Tests 

IV. (June 11) Rejection Fallacies: Do P-values exaggerate evidence? Jeffreys-Lindley paradox or Bayes/Fisher disagreement:

SIST: Excursion 4 Tour II

Recommended:

-Benjamin, D., Berger, J., Johannesson, M., et al. (2017). Redefine Statistical Significance, Nature Human Behaviour, 2: 6-10.

-Lakens, D., et al. (2018). Justify Your Alpha, Nature Human Behaviour, 2: 168-71.

V. (June 18) The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties:

SIST: Excursion 4 Tour III: pp. 267-286; Farewell Keepsake pp. 436-444

-Amrhein, V., Greenland, S., & McShane, B., (2019). Comment: Retire Statistical Significance, Nature, 567: 305-308.

-Ioannidis J. (2019). “The Importance of Predefined Rules and Prespecified Statistical Analyses: Do Not Abandon Significance.” JAMA. 321(21): 2067–2068. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.4582

-Ioannidis, J. (2019). Correspondence: Retiring statistical significance would give bias a free pass. Nature, 567, 461. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-00969-2

-Mayo, DG. (2019), P‐value thresholds: Forfeit at your peril. Eur J Clin Invest, 49: e13170. doi: 10.1111/eci.13170

Information Items for SIST

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

Souvenirs

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog (I will link to items from excerpted proofs for interested blog followers as we proceed)

-SEV apps: Richard Morey

-SIST Errata

DELAYED: JUNE 19-20 Workshop: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties