Meeting 3 (June 4)
III. (June 4) Deeper Concepts: Confidence Intervals and Tests: Higgs’ Discovery:
Reading:
SIST: Excursion 3 Tour III
(Strongly) Recommended (as much as interests you) Excursion 3 Tour II:It’s the Methods Stupid: Howlers and Chestnuts of Tests
General Info Items:
-References: Captain’s Bibliography
–Souvenirs Meeting 3: N (Rule of Thumb for SEV), O(Interpreting Probable Flukes), [L (Beyond Incompatibilist Tunnels),M(Quicksand Takeaway]
-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)
–Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog
Mayo Memos for Meeting 3:
-5/30 I blogged on nearly every topic in SIST as I was writing it at errorstatistics.com. Using the search on errorstatistics.com for a topic, you’ll often discover the development of ideas and discussion from readers. Reader discussion often saved me from blunders!
-A review essay of SIST by particle physicist Bob Cousins is relevant for the topics of meeting #3: Cousins, R. (2020). “Connections between statistical practice in elementary particle physics and the severity concept as discussed in Mayo’s Statistical Inference as Severe Testing” (Draft February 22, 2020), arXiv:2002.09713v1 [stat.OT].
Slides & Video Links for Meeting 3:
Slides:
at-home seminar room w/ blackboard
(Thebes) conference room for seminar
amp & mike
on the desk outside conference room
Meeting 2 (May 28)
.
II. (May 28): N-P and Fisherian Tests, Severe Testing: How to avoid fallacies of tests
Reading:
SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I (focus on pages up to p. 152): 3.1, 3.2, 3.3
Recommended: Excursion 2 Tour II pp. 92-100 (Sections 2.4-2.7)
Optional: I will (try to) answer questions on demarcation of science, induction, falsification, Popper from Excursion 2 Tour II (Section 2.3)
(Use comments on this blog for queries we don’t get to in the seminar. The first comment you write is sent to moderation to be approved; after that it’s automatic.)
Handout: Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve
5 minute refresher on means, variance, standard deviations, and the Normal distribution, standard normal
General Info Items:
-References: Captain’s Bibliography
–Souvenirs: Meeting 1: A-D; Meeting 2 Souvenirs: (E) An Array of Questions, Problems, Models, (I) So What Is a Statistical Test, Really?, (J) UMP Tests, (K) Probativism
[Souvenirs from optional pages–they’re free: (F) Getting Free of Popperian Constraints on Language, (G) The Current State of Play in Psychology, (H) Solving Induction Is Showing Methods with Error Control]
-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)
–Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog
-Mementos from Excursion 2 Tour II: Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction 2.3-2.7
Mayo Memos for Meeting 2:
5/27 Today (27 May) is the statistician Allan Birnbaum’s birthday. I put up a blogpost (on my Error Statistics Philosophy blog) with a volume on foundations of statistics that Synthese published in his honor in 1977.
5/27 Sam Fletcher’s review essay of my book SIST is up at the journal Philosophy of Science
Slides & Video Links for Meeting 2:
Slides:
Meeting #2 main slides (PDF)
Supplemental slides (Likelihoodist vs. Significance Tester w/ Bernoulli Trials) (PDF)
LSE Research Seminar PH500 21 May – 25 June, 2020
Mayo
General Schedule PDF
CLICK ON READINGS
Topic: Current Controversies in Phil Stat (LSE, Remote 15:00 – 17:00; Thursdays 21 May-18 June)
Main Text SIST: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars CUP, 2018)*:
Slides for each meeting will be on individual meeting posts on this blog.
I. (May 21) Introduction: Controversies in Phil Stat:
SIST*: Preface, Excursion 1
Preface
Excursion 1 Tour I
Excursion 1 Tour II
*Note: The above are from proofs, participants have a copy of the book Notes/Outline of Excursion 1 Postcard
II. (May 28) N-P and Fisherian Tests, Severe Testing:
SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I (focus on pages up to p. 152): 3.1, 3.2, 3.3
Recommended: Excursion 2 Tour II pp. 92-100
Optional: I will (try to) answer questions on demarcation of science, induction, falsification, Popper from Excursion 2 Tour II
Handout: Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve
III. (June 4) Deeper Concepts: Confidence Intervals and Tests: Higgs’ Discovery:
SIST: Excursion 3 Tour III
(Strongly) Recommended (as much as interests you) Excursion 3 Tour II: It’s the Methods Stupid: Howlers and Chestnuts of Tests
IV. (June 11) Rejection Fallacies: Do P-values exaggerate evidence? Jeffreys-Lindley paradox or Bayes/Fisher disagreement:
SIST: Excursion 4 Tour II
Recommended (if time): Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity”
V. (June 18) The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties:
SIST: Excursion 4 Tour III pp. 267-286; Farewell Keepsake pp. 436-444.
-Amrhein, V., Greenland, S., & McShane, B., (2019). Comment: Retire Statistical Significance, Nature, 567: 305-308.
-Ioannidis J. (2019). “The Importance of Predefined Rules and Prespecified Statistical Analyses: Do Not Abandon Significance.” JAMA. 321(21): 2067–2068. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.4582
-Mayo, DG. (2019), P‐value thresholds: Forfeit at your peril. Eur J Clin Invest, 49: e13170. doi: 10.1111/eci.13170
Recommended (and fun) P-values on Trial: Selective Reporting of (Best Practice Guides Against) Selective Reporting
VI. (June 25) BONUS MEETING: Power, shpower, severity, positive predictive value (diagnostic model) & a Continuation of The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties
There will also be a guest speaker: Professor David Hand: “Trustworthiness of statistical analysis” (abstract).
SIST Excursion 5 Tour I (pp. 323-332; 338-344; 346-352),Tour II (pp. 353-6; 361-370), and
Recommended: What Ever Happened to Bayesian Foundations (Excursion 6 Tour I)
Information Items for SIST
-References: Captain’s Bibliography
-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)
–Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog (I will link to items from excerpted proofs for interested blog followers as we proceed)
-SEV apps: Richard Morey. Newly updated Richard Morey SEV app.
-SIST Errata
DELAYED: JUNE 19-20 Workshop: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties
Meeting 1 (May 21)
.
I. (May 21) Introduction: Controversies in Phil Stat
Reading:
SIST*: Preface, Excursion 1
Preface
Excursion 1 Tour I
Excursion 1 Tour II
*Note: The above are from proofs, participants should have a copy of the book
Notes:
NOTES on Excursion 1
Postcard
Please ask any questions from the First Meeting in the comments of this blog.
General Info Items:
-References: Captain’s Bibliography
–Souvenirs Meeting 1: Souvenir A Postcard to Send, Souvenir B Likelihood versus Error Statistical, Souvenir C A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide, Souvenir D Why We Are So New
-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)
–Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog
Slides & Video Links for Meeting 1:
Slides: (PDF)
Intro video from July 28, 2019
(Viewing in full screen mode helps with buffering issues.)
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