Month: May 2020

III. (June 4) Deeper Concepts: Confidence Intervals and Tests: Higgs’ Discovery:

Reading:

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour III 

(Strongly) Recommended (as much as interests you) Excursion 3 Tour II:It’s the Methods Stupid: Howlers and Chestnuts of Tests

General Info Items:  

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

–Souvenirs  Meeting 3: N (Rule of Thumb for SEV), O(Interpreting Probable Flukes), [L (Beyond Incompatibilist Tunnels),M(Quicksand Takeaway]

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

–Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog

Mayo Memos for Meeting 3:

-5/30 I blogged on nearly every topic in SIST as I was writing it at errorstatistics.com. Using the search on errorstatistics.com for a topic, you’ll often discover the development of ideas and discussion from readers. Reader discussion often saved me from blunders!

-A review essay of SIST by particle physicist Bob Cousins is relevant for the topics of meeting #3: Cousins, R. (2020). “Connections between statistical practice in elementary particle physics and the severity concept as discussed in Mayo’s Statistical Inference as Severe Testing” (Draft February 22, 2020), arXiv:2002.09713v1 [stat.OT].

Slides & Video Links for Meeting 3:

Slides: (PDF)

Video: https://videos.files.wordpress.com/Xmn6q0iz/lecture_3_ph500_trimmed_fmt1.ogv

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II. (May 28): N-P and Fisherian Tests, Severe Testing: How to avoid fallacies of tests

Reading:

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I (focus on pages up to p. 152): 3.1, 3.2, 3.3

Recommended: Excursion 2 Tour II pp. 92-100 (Sections 2.4-2.7)

Optional: I will (try to) answer questions on demarcation of science, induction, falsification, Popper from Excursion 2 Tour II (Section 2.3)

(Use comments on this blog for queries we don’t get to in the seminar. The first comment you write is sent to moderation to be approved; after that it’s automatic.)

Handout: Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve

5 minute refresher on means, variance, standard deviations, and the Normal distribution, standard normal

General Info Items:  

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

–Souvenirs: Meeting 1: A-D;  Meeting 2 Souvenirs: (E) An Array of Questions, Problems, Models, (I) So What Is a Statistical Test, Really?, (J) UMP Tests, (K) Probativism

[Souvenirs from optional pages–they’re free: (F) Getting Free of Popperian Constraints on Language, (G) The Current State of Play in Psychology, (H) Solving Induction Is Showing Methods with Error Control]

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

–Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog

-Mementos from Excursion 2 Tour II: Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction 2.3-2.7

Mayo Memos for Meeting 2:

5/27 Today (27 May) is the statistician Allan Birnbaum’s birthday. I put up a blogpost (on my Error Statistics Philosophy blog) with a volume on foundations of statistics that Synthese published in his honor in 1977.

5/27 Sam Fletcher’s review essay of my book SIST is up at the journal Philosophy of Science

Slides & Video Links for Meeting 2:

Slides:
Meeting #2 main slides (PDF)

Supplemental slides (Likelihoodist vs. Significance Tester w/ Bernoulli Trials) (PDF)

Video: https://videos.files.wordpress.com/YgQcHOn3/zoom-_lecture_2_fmt1.ogv

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I. (May 21)  Introduction: Controversies in Phil Stat  

Reading:

SIST*: Preface, Excursion 1
Preface
Excursion 1 Tour I
Excursion 1 Tour II

*Note: The above are from proofs, participants should have a copy of the book

Notes:
NOTES on Excursion 1
Postcard

Please ask any questions from the First Meeting in the comments of this blog.

General Info Items:  

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

–Souvenirs  Meeting 1: Souvenir A Postcard to Send, Souvenir B Likelihood versus Error Statistical, Souvenir C A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide, Souvenir D Why We Are So New

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

–Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog

Slides & Video Links for Meeting 1:

Slides: (PDF)

Intro video from July 28, 2019
(Viewing in full screen mode helps with buffering issues.)

Mayo

 General Schedule  PDF

CLICK ON READINGS

Topic: Current Controversies in Phil Stat (LSE, Remote 15:00 – 17:00; Thursdays 21 May-18 June)

Main Text SIST: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars CUP, 2018)*:

Slides for each meeting will be on individual meeting posts on this blog.

I. (May 21)  Introduction: Controversies in Phil Stat: [Meeting 1 Blog Post; Slides: (PDF)]

SIST*: Preface, Excursion 1

Preface
Excursion 1 Tour I
Excursion 1 Tour II

*Note: The above are from proofs, participants have a copy of the book  Notes/Outline of Excursion 1 Postcard

II. (May 28) N-P and Fisherian Tests, Severe Testing: [Meeting 2 Blog Post; Meeting #2 Main slides (PDF) & Supplemental slides (Likelihoodist vs. Significance Tester w/ Bernoulli Trials) (PDF)]

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I (focus on pages up to p. 152): 3.1, 3.2, 3.3

Recommended: Excursion 2 Tour II pp. 92-100

Optional: I will (try to) answer questions on demarcation of science, induction, falsification, Popper from Excursion 2 Tour II

Handout: Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve

III. (June 4) Deeper Concepts: Confidence Intervals and Tests: Higgs’ Discovery: [Meeting 3 Blog Post; Slides (PDF)]

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour III
(Strongly) Recommended (as much as interests you) Excursion 3 Tour II: It’s the Methods Stupid: Howlers and Chestnuts of Tests

IV. (June 11) Rejection Fallacies: Do P-values exaggerate evidence? Jeffreys-Lindley paradox or Bayes/Fisher disagreement: [Meeting 4 Blog Post; Slides: (PDF)]

SIST: Excursion 4 Tour II

Recommended (if time): Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity”

V. (June 18) The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties: [Meeting 5 Blog Post; Draft Slides (PDF)]

SIST: Excursion 4 Tour III pp. 267-286; Farewell Keepsake pp. 436-444.  

-Amrhein, V., Greenland, S., & McShane, B., (2019). Comment: Retire Statistical Significance, Nature, 567: 305-308.

-Ioannidis J. (2019). “The Importance of Predefined Rules and Prespecified Statistical Analyses: Do Not Abandon Significance.” JAMA. 321(21): 2067–2068. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.4582

-Mayo, DG. (2019), P‐value thresholds: Forfeit at your peril. Eur J Clin Invest, 49: e13170. doi: 10.1111/eci.13170

Recommended (and fun) P-values on Trial: Selective Reporting of (Best Practice Guides Against) Selective Reporting

VI. (June 25) BONUS MEETING: Power, shpower, severity, positive predictive value (diagnostic model) & a Continuation of The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties: [Meeting 6 Blog Post; Mayo Slides (PDF) & Hand Slides (recorded power point)]

There will also be a guest speaker: Professor David Hand: “Trustworthiness of statistical analysis” (abstract).

SIST Excursion 5 Tour I (pp. 323-332; 338-344; 346-352),Tour II (pp. 353-6; 361-370), and

Recommended: What Ever Happened to Bayesian Foundations (Excursion 6 Tour I)

Information Items for SIST

-References: Captain’s Bibliography

–Souvenirs

-Summaries of 16 Tours (abstracts & keywords)

–Excerpts & Mementos on Error Statistics Philosophy Blog (I will link to items from excerpted proofs for interested blog followers as we proceed)

-SEV apps: Richard Morey. Newly updated Richard Morey SEV app.

-SIST Errata

DELAYED: JUNE 19-20 Workshop: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties